I am a Monetary Advisor at the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, the Anne O. Krueger Professor of Economics and a Distinguished McKnight University Professor at the University of Minnesota. I completed my PhD at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. I am an editor at the Journal of Economic Theory.
My research focuses on macroeconomic theory and international economics (See research below).
My Github repositories contain code and data.
Email: contactme@amador.email
News
Updated -- Tariff Wars and Net Foreign Asset Positions
Published in the Journal of Monetary Economics -- Central bank reputation with noise
Book
The Economics of Sovereign Debt and Default
Aguiar, Mark, and Manuel Amador (2021). The Economics of Sovereign Debt and Default. Princeton University Press.
Working papers
Generalized Delegation
Amador, Manuel, Kyle Bagwell, and Luiz Carpizo (2025): "Generalized Delegation".
Tariff Wars and Net Foreign Asset Positions
Aguiar, Mark, Manuel Amador, and Doireann Fitzgerald (2025): "Tariff Wars and Net Foreign Asset Positions".
Helicopter Drops and Liquidity Traps
Amador, Manuel, and Javier Bianchi (2025): "Helicopter Drops and Liquidity Traps".
Bank-runs, Fragility, and Regulation
Amador, Manuel, and Javier Bianchi (2025): "Bank-runs, Fragility, and Regulation".
Pareto Improving Fiscal and Monetary Policies: Samuelson in the New Keynesian Model
Aguiar, Mark, Manuel Amador, and Cristina Arellano (2024): "Pareto Improving Fiscal and Monetary Policies: Samuelson in the New Keynesian Model".
Delegation Theory and the Delegation of Tariff-Negotiation Authority
Amador, Manuel, and Kyle Bagwell (2019): "Delegation Theory and the Delegation of Tariff-Negotiation Authority".
Foreign Reserve Management at Zero Interest Rates (slides)
Amador, Manuel, Javier Bianchi, Luigi Bocola, and Fabrizio Perri (2019): "Foreign Reserve Management at Zero Interest Rates".
Crisis and Commitment: Inflation Credibility and the Vulnerability to Sovereign Debt Crises
Aguiar, Mark, Manuel Amador, Gita Gopinath, and Emmanuel Farhi (2013): "Crisis and Commitment: Inflation Credibility and the Vulnerability to Sovereign Debt Crises".
Sovereign Debt and the Tragedy of the Commons
Amador, Manuel (2012): "Sovereign Debt and the Tragedy of the Commons".
Previous version: "A Political Economy Model of Sovereign Debt Repayment"
Publications
Central bank reputation with noise
Amador, Manuel, and Christopher Phelan (2026): "Central bank reputation with noise," Journal of Monetary Economics, 158: 103906.
PDF -- Journal link -- Code -- BibTeX and abstract
Micro Risks and (Robust) Pareto Improving Policies
Aguiar, Mark, Manuel Amador, and Cristina Arellano (2024): "Micro Risks and (Robust) Pareto Improving Policies". American Economic Review, 114 (11): 3669–3713.
PDF -- Journal link -- Online appendix -- Code -- BibTeX and abstract
Bank-runs, Fragility, and Credit Easing
Amador, Manuel, and Javier Bianchi (2024): "Bank-runs, Fragility, and Credit Easing", American Economic Review, 114 (7): 2073-2110.
PDF -- Journal link -- Previous results in "Partial Bank Runs and Optimal Default" -- BibTeX and abstract
Sovereign-Debt Crises and Floating-Rate Bonds
Aguiar, Mark, Manuel Amador, and Ricardo Alves Monteiro (2023): "Sovereign-Debt Crises and Floating-Rate Bonds", In A. Aguirre, A. Fernandez, and S. Kalemli-Ozcan, editors, Credibility of Emerging Markets, Foreign Investors' Risk Perceptions and Capital Flows, pages 159–84.
PDF -- Journal link -- Slides -- BibTeX and abstract
Reputation and Partial Default
Amador, Manuel, and Christopher Phelan (2023): "Reputation and Partial Default", AER:Insights, 5(2): 158-172.
PDF -- Journal link -- Code -- BibTeX and abstract
Regulating a Monopolist with Uncertain Costs without Transfers
Amador, Manuel, and Kyle Bagwell (2022): "Regulating a Monopolist with Uncertain Costs without Transfers", Theoretical Economics, 17 (4): 1719-1760.
Reputation and Sovereign Default
Amador, Manuel, and Christopher Phelan (2021): "Reputation and Sovereign Default". Econometrica, 89 (4): 1979-2010.
PDF -- Journal link -- Online appendix -- Code -- BibTeX and abstract
Self-fulfilling Debt Dilution: Maturity and Multiplicity in Debt Models
Aguiar, Mark, and Manuel Amador (2020): "Self-fulfilling Debt Dilution: Maturity and Multiplicity in Debt Models". American Economic Review, 110 (9): 2783-2818.
PDF -- Journal link -- Online appendix -- Code for Numerical Simulations -- Code for Figures -- Additional code -- BibTeX and abstract
Exchange Rate Policies at the Zero Lower Bound
Amador, Manuel, Javier Bianchi, Luigi Bocola, and Fabrizio Perri (2020): "Exchange Rate Policies at the Zero Lower Bound". Review of Economic Studies, 87(4): 1605-1645.
PDF -- Journal link -- Older Working Paper -- BibTeX and abstract
Money Burning in the Theory of Delegation
Amador, Manuel, and Kyle Bagwell (2020): "Money burning in the theory of delegation," Games and Economic Behavior, 112: 382-412.
On the Welfare Losses from External Sovereign Borrowing
Aguiar, Mark, Manuel Amador, and Stelios Fourakis (2020): "On the Welfare Losses from External Sovereign Borrowing," IMF Economic Review, 68(1): 163-194.
PDF -- Journal link -- Slides -- Code -- BibTeX and abstract
A Contraction for Sovereign Debt Models
Aguiar, Mark, and Manuel Amador (2019): "A Contraction for Sovereign Debt Models," Journal of Economic Theory, 183: 842-875.
Take the Short Route: Equilibrium Default and Debt Maturity
Aguiar, Mark, Manuel Amador, Hugo Hopenhayn, and Ivan Werning (2019): "Take the Short Route: Equilibrium Default and Debt Maturity," Econometrica, 87(2): 423-462.
PDF -- Journal link -- NBER Working Paper -- Slides -- BibTeX and abstract
A Note on Interval Delegation
Amador, Manuel, Kyle Bagwell, and Alex Frankel (2018): "A Note on Interval Delegation," Economic Theory Bulletin, 6(2): 239-249.
PDF -- Journal link -- Online appendix -- BibTeX and abstract
Reverse Speculative Attacks
Amador, Manuel, Javier Bianchi, Luigi Bocola, and Fabrizio Perri (2016): "Reverse Speculative Attacks," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 72: 125–137.
PDF -- Journal link -- Code -- BibTeX and abstract
Fiscal Policy in Debt Constrained Economies
Aguiar, Mark, and Manuel Amador (2016): "Fiscal Policy in Debt Constrained Economies," Journal of Economic Theory, 161: 37-75.
PDF -- Journal link -- Code -- BibTeX and abstract
Coordination and Crisis in Monetary Unions
Aguiar, Mark, Manuel Amador, Emmanuel Farhi, and Gita Gopinath (2015): "Coordination and Crisis in Monetary Unions," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 130(4): 1727-1779.
Sovereign Debt Booms in Monetary Unions
Aguiar, Mark, Manuel Amador, Emmanuel Farhi, and Gita Gopinath (2014): "Sovereign Debt Booms in Monetary Unions," American Economic Review: Papers and Proceedings, 104(5).
PDF -- Journal link -- Code -- BibTeX and abstract
Sovereign Debt
Aguiar, Mark, and Manuel Amador (2014): "Sovereign Debt," Handbook of International Economics, Vol 4, North-Holland: 647-87.
The Theory of Optimal Delegation with An Application to Tariff Caps
Amador, Manuel, and Kyle Bagwell (2013): "The Theory of Optimal Delegation with an Application to Tariff Caps," Econometrica, 81(4): 1541-1599.
PDF -- Journal link -- Online Appendix -- BibTeX and abstract
Tariff Revenue and Tariff Caps
Amador, Manuel, and Kyle Bagwell (2012): "Tariff Revenue and Tariff Caps," American Economic Review: Papers and Proceedings, 102(3): 459–465.
Learning from Private and Public Observations of Others' Actions
Amador, Manuel, and Pierre-Olivier Weill (2012): "Learning from Private and Public Observations of Others' Actions," Journal of Economic Theory, 147(3): 910-940.
PDF -- Journal link -- Online Appendix -- Older Working Paper -- BibTeX and abstract
Growth in the Shadow of Expropriation
Aguiar, Mark, and Manuel Amador (2011): "Growth in the Shadow of Expropriation," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 126(2): 651-697.
PDF -- Journal link -- Online Appendix -- Complete version (with appendix) -- Code -- BibTeX and abstract
Learning from Prices, Public Communication and Welfare
Amador, Manuel, and Pierre-Olivier Weill (2010): "Learning from Prices: Public Communication and Welfare," Journal of Political Economy, 118(5): 866-907.
PDF -- Journal link -- Online Appendix -- BibTeX and abstract
Expropriation Dynamics
Aguiar, Mark, Manuel Amador, and Gita Gopinath (2009): "Expropriation Dynamics," American Economic Review: Papers and Proceedings, 99(2): 473-479.
PDF -- Journal link -- Code -- BibTeX and abstract
Investment Cycles and Sovereign Debt Overhang
Aguiar, Mark, Manuel Amador, and Gita Gopinath (2009): "Investment Cycles and Sovereign Debt Overhang," Review of Economic Studies, 76(1): 1-31.
Commitment vs Flexibility
Amador, Manuel, Ivan Werning, and George‐Marios Angeletos (2006): "Commitment vs. Flexibility," Econometrica, 74(2): 365-396.
PDF -- Journal link -- Online Appendix -- NBER Working Paper -- BibTeX and abstract