I am a Monetary Advisor at the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, the Anne O. Krueger Professor of Economics and a Distinguished McKnight University Professor at the University of Minnesota. My areas of interest are macroeconomic theory and international economics. I am currently an editor at the Journal of Economic Theory. I completed my PhD at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.
Code
- Github repositories, includes code and data used in published papers, as well as other things.
Book
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The Economics of Sovereign Debt and Default
Aguiar, Mark, and Manuel Amador (2021). The Economics of Sovereign Debt and Default. Princeton University Press.
Working papers
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Tariff Wars and Net Foreign Asset Positions
Aguiar, Mark, Manuel Amador, and Doireann Fitzgerald (2025): “Tariff Wars and Net Foreign Asset Positions”.
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Helicopter Drops and Liquidity Traps
Amador, Manuel, and Javier Bianchi (2025): “Helicopter Drops and Liquidity Traps”.
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Central Bank Reputation with Noise
Amador, Manuel, and Christopher Phelan (2024): “Central Bank Reputation with Noise”.
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Bank-runs, Fragility, and Regulation
Amador, Manuel, and Javier Bianchi (2025): “Bank-runs, Fragility, and Regulation”.
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Pareto Improving Fiscal and Monetary Policies: Samuelson in the New Keynesian Model
Aguiar, Mark, Manuel Amador, and Cristina Arellano (2024): “Pareto Improving Fiscal and Monetary Policies: Samuelson in the New Keynesian Model”.
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Delegation Theory and the Delegation of Tariff-Negotiation Authority
Amador, Manuel, and Kyle Bagwell (2019): “Delegation Theory and the Delegation of Tariff-Negotiation Authority”.
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Foreign Reserve Management at Zero Interest Rates (slides)
Amador, Manuel, Javier Bianchi, Luigi Bocola, and Fabrizio Perri (2019): “Foreign Reserve Management at Zero Interest Rates”.
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Crisis and Commitment: Inflation Credibility and the Vulnerability to Sovereign Debt Crises
Aguiar, Mark, Manuel Amador, Gita Gopinath, and Emmanuel Farhi (2013): “Crisis and Commitment: Inflation Credibility and the Vulnerability to Sovereign Debt Crises”.
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Sovereign Debt and the Tragedy of the Commons
Amador, Manuel (2012): “Sovereign Debt and the Tragedy of the Commons”.
Previous version: “A Political Economy Model of Sovereign Debt Repayment”
Publications
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Micro Risks and (Robust) Pareto Improving Policies
Aguiar, Mark, Manuel Amador, and Cristina Arellano (2024): “Micro Risks and (Robust) Pareto Improving Policies”. American Economic Review, 114 (11): 3669–3713.
PDF – Journal link – Online appendix – Code – BibTeX and abstract
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Bank-runs, Fragility, and Credit Easing
Amador, Manuel, and Javier Bianchi (2024): “Bank-runs, Fragility, and Credit Easing”, American Economic Review, 114 (7): 2073-2110.
PDF – Journal link – Previous results in “Partial Bank Runs and Optimal Default” – BibTeX and abstract
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Sovereign-Debt Crises and Floating-Rate Bonds
Aguiar, Mark, Manuel Amador, and Ricardo Alves Monteiro (2023): “Sovereign-Debt Crises and Floating-Rate Bonds”, In A. Aguirre, A. Fernandez, and S. Kalemli-Ozcan, editors, Credibility of Emerging Markets, Foreign Investors’ Risk Perceptions and Capital Flows, pages 159–84.
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Reputation and Partial Default
Amador, Manuel, and Christopher Phelan (2023): “Reputation and Partial Default”, AER:Insights, 5(2): 158-172.
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Regulating a Monopolist with Uncertain Costs without Transfers
Amador, Manuel, and Kyle Bagwell (2022): “Regulating a Monopolist with Uncertain Costs without Transfers”, Theoretical Economics, 17 (4): 1719-1760.
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Reputation and Sovereign Default
Amador, Manuel, and Christopher Phelan (2021): “Reputation and Sovereign Default”. Econometrica, 89 (4): 1979-2010.
PDF – Journal link – Online appendix – Code – BibTeX and abstract
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Self-fulfilling Debt Dilution: Maturity and Multiplicity in Debt Models
Aguiar, Mark, and Manuel Amador (2020): “Self-fulfilling Debt Dilution: Maturity and Multiplicity in Debt Models”. American Economic Review, 110 (9): 2783-2818.
PDF – Journal link – Online appendix – Code for Numerical Simulations – Code for Figures – Additional code – BibTeX and abstract
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Exchange Rate Policies at the Zero Lower Bound
Amador, Manuel, Javier Bianchi, Luigi Bocola, and Fabrizio Perri (2020): “Exchange Rate Policies at the Zero Lower Bound”. Review of Economic Studies, 87(4): 1605-1645.
PDF – Journal link – Older Working Paper – BibTeX and abstract
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Money Burning in the Theory of Delegation
Amador, Manuel, and Kyle Bagwell (2020): “Money burning in the theory of delegation,” Games and Economic Behavior, 112: 382-412.
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On the Welfare Losses from External Sovereign Borrowing
Aguiar, Mark, Manuel Amador, and Stelios Fourakis (2020): “On the Welfare Losses from External Sovereign Borrowing,” IMF Economic Review, 68(1): 163-194.
PDF – Journal link – Slides – Code – BibTeX and abstract
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A Contraction for Sovereign Debt Models
Aguiar, Mark, and Manuel Amador (2019): “A Contraction for Sovereign Debt Models,” Journal of Economic Theory, 183: 842-875.
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Take the Short Route: Equilibrium Default and Debt Maturity
Aguiar, Mark, Manuel Amador, Hugo Hopenhayn, and Ivan Werning (2019): “Take the Short Route: Equilibrium Default and Debt Maturity,” Econometrica, 87(2): 423-462.
PDF – Journal link – NBER Working Paper – Slides – BibTeX and abstract
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Amador, Manuel, Kyle Bagwell, and Alex Frankel (2018): “A Note on Interval Delegation,” Economic Theory Bulletin, 6(2): 239-249.
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Amador, Manuel, Javier Bianchi, Luigi Bocola, and Fabrizio Perri (2016): “Reverse Speculative Attacks,” Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 72: 125–137.
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Fiscal Policy in Debt Constrained Economies
Aguiar, Mark, and Manuel Amador (2016): “Fiscal Policy in Debt Constrained Economies,” Journal of Economic Theory, 161: 37-75.
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Coordination and Crisis in Monetary Unions
Aguiar, Mark, Manuel Amador, Emmanuel Farhi, and Gita Gopinath (2015): “Coordination and Crisis in Monetary Unions,” The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 130(4): 1727-1779.
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Sovereign Debt Booms in Monetary Unions
Aguiar, Mark, Manuel Amador, Emmanuel Farhi and Gita Gopinath (2014): “Sovereign Debt Booms in Monetary Unions,” American Economic Review: Papers and Proceedings, 104(5).
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Aguiar, Mark, and Manuel Amador (2014): ”Sovereign Debt,” Handbook of International Economics, Vol 4, North-Holland: 647-87.
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The Theory of Optimal Delegation with An Application to Tariff Caps
Amador, Manuel, and Kyle Bagwell (2013): “The Theory of Optimal Delegation with an Application to Tariff Caps,” Econometrica, 81(4): 1541-1599.
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Tariff Revenue and Tariff Caps
Amador, Manuel, and Kyle Bagwell (2012): “Tariff Revenue and Tariff Caps,” American Economic Review: Papers and Proceedings, 102(3): 459–465.
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Learning from Private and Public Observations of Others’ Actions
Amador, Manuel, and Pierre-Olivier Weill (2012): “Learning from Private and Public Observations of Others’ Actions,” Journal of Economic Theory, 147(3): 910-940.
PDF – Journal link – Online Appendix – Older Working Paper – BibTeX and abstract
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Growth in the Shadow of Expropriation
Aguiar, Mark, and Manuel Amador (2011): “Growth in the Shadow of Expropriation,” The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 126(2): 651-697.
PDF – Journal link – Online Appendix – Complete version (with appendix) – Code – BibTeX and abstract
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Learning from Prices, Public Communication and Welfare
Amador, Manuel, and Pierre-Olivier Weill (2010): “Learning from Prices: Public Communication and Welfare,” Journal of Political Economy, 118(5): 866-907.
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Aguiar, Mark, Manuel Amador, and Gita Gopinath (2009): “Expropriation Dynamics,” American Economic Review: Papers and Proceedings, 99(2): 473-479.
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Investment Cycles and Sovereign Debt Overhang
Aguiar, Mark, Manuel Amador, and Gita Gopinath (2009): “Investment Cycles and Sovereign Debt Overhang,” Review of Economic Studies, 76(1): 1-31.
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Amador, Manuel, Ivan Werning, and George‐Marios Angeletos (2006): “Commitment vs. Flexibility,” Econometrica, 74(2): 365-396.
PDF – Journal link – Online Appendix – NBER Working Paper – BibTeX and abstract