I am a Monetary Advisor at the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis and the Anne O. Krueger Professor of Economics at the University of Minnesota. My areas of interest are macroeconomic theory and international economics. I am currently an editor at the Journal of Economic Theory. I completed my PhD at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

contactme@amador.email

Code

• Github repositories, includes code and data used in published papers, as well as other things.

Book

• The Economics of Sovereign Debt and Default

  Aguiar, Mark, and Manuel Amador (2021). The Economics of Sovereign Debt and Default. Princeton University Press.

  Code

Working papers

• Bank-runs, Fragility, and Regulation

  Amador, Manuel and Javier Bianchi (2024): “Bank-runs, Fragility, and Regulation”.

• Pareto Improving Fiscal and Monetary Policies: Samuelson in the New Keynesian Model

  Aguiar, Mark, Manuel Amador, and Cristina Arellano (2024): “Pareto Improving Fiscal and Monetary Policies: Samuelson in the New Keynesian Model”.

• Helicopter Drops and Liquidity Traps

  Amador, Manuel and Javier Bianchi (2023): “Helicopter Drops and Liquidity Traps”.

• Delegation Theory and the Delegation of Tariff-Negotiation Authority

  Amador, Manuel, and Kyle Bagwell (2019): “Delegation Theory and the Delegation of Tariff-Negotiation Authority”.

• Foreign Reserve Management at Zero Interest Rates (slides)

  Amador, Manuel, Javier Bianchi, Luigi Bocola, and Fabrizio Perri (2019): “Foreign Reserve Management at Zero Interest Rates”.

• Crisis and Commitment: Inflation Credibility and the Vulnerability to Sovereign Debt Crises

  Aguiar, Mark, Manuel Amador, Gita Gopinath and Emmanuel Farhi (2013): “Crisis and Commitment: Inflation Credibility and the Vulnerability to Sovereign Debt Crises”.

• Sovereign Debt and the Tragedy of the Commons

  Amador, Manuel (2012): “Sovereign Debt and the Tragedy of the Commons”.

  Previous version: “A Political Economy Model of Sovereign Debt Repayment”

Publications

BibTeX file

• Micro Risks and (Robust) Pareto Improving Policies

  Aguiar, Mark, Manuel Amador and Cristina Arellano (2024): “Micro Risks and (Robust) Pareto Improving Policies”. Accepted at American Economic Review.

  Code

• Bank-runs, Fragility, and Credit Easing

  Amador, Manuel and Javier Bianchi (2024): “Bank-runs, Fragility, and Credit Easing”, American Economic Review, 114 (7): 2073-2110.

  PDF – Journal link – Previous results in “Partial Bank Runs and Optimal Default” – BibTeX and abstract

• Sovereign-Debt Crises and Floating-Rate Bonds

  Aguiar, Mark, Manuel Amador, and Ricardo Alves Monteiro (2023): “Sovereign-Debt Crises and Floating-Rate Bonds”, In A. Aguirre, A. Fernandez, and S. Kalemli-Ozcan, editors, Credibility of Emerging Markets, Foreign Investors’ Risk Perceptions and Capital Flows, pages 159–84.

  PDF – Journal link – Slides – BibTeX and abstract

• Reputation and Partial Default

  Amador, Manuel and Christopher Phelan (2023): “Reputation and Partial Default”, AER:Insights, 5(2): 158-172.

  PDF – Journal link – Code – BibTeX and abstract

• Regulating a Monopolist with Uncertain Costs without Transfers

  Amador, Manuel, and Kyle Bagwell (2022): “Regulating a Monopolist with Uncertain Costs without Transfers”, Theoretical Economics, 17 (4): 1719-1760.

  PDF – Journal link – BibTeX and abstract

• Reputation and Sovereign Default

  Amador, Manuel and Christopher Phelan (2021): “Reputation and Sovereign Default”. Econometrica, 89 (4): 1979-2010.

  PDF – Journal link – Online appendix – Code – BibTeX and abstract

• Self-fulfilling Debt Dilution: Maturity and Multiplicity in Debt Models

  Aguiar, Mark and Manuel Amador (2020): “Self-fulfilling Debt Dilution: Maturity and Multiplicity in Debt Models”. American Economic Review, 110 (9): 2783-2818.

  PDF – Journal link – Online appendix – Code for Numerical Simulations – Code for Figures – Additional code – BibTeX and abstract

• Exchange Rate Policies at the Zero Lower Bound

  Amador, Manuel, Javier Bianchi, Luigi Bocola, and Fabrizio Perri (2020): “Exchange Rate Policies at the Zero Lower Bound”. Review of Economic Studies, 87(4): 1605-1645.

  PDF – Journal link – Older Working Paper – BibTeX and abstract

• Money Burning in the Theory of Delegation

  Amador, Manuel and Kyle Bagwell (2020): “Money burning in the theory of delegation,” Games and Economic Behavior, 112: 382-412.

  PDF – Journal link – BibTeX and abstract

• On the Welfare Losses from External Sovereign Borrowing

  Aguiar, Mark, Manuel Amador, and Stelios Fourakis (2020): “On the Welfare Losses from External Sovereign Borrowing,” IMF Economic Review, 68(1): 163-194.

  PDF – Journal link – Slides – Code – BibTeX and abstract

• A Contraction for Sovereign Debt Models

  Aguiar, Mark, and Manuel Amador (2019): “A Contraction for Sovereign Debt Models,” Journal of Economic Theory, 183: 842-875.

  PDF – Journal link – BibTeX and abstract

• Take the Short Route: Equilibrium Default and Debt Maturity

  Aguiar, Mark, Manuel Amador, Hugo Hopenhayn and Ivan Werning (2019): “Take the Short Route: Equilibrium Default and Debt Maturity,” Econometrica, 87(2): 423-462.

  PDF – Journal link – NBER Working Paper – Slides – BibTeX and abstract

• A Note on Interval Delegation

  Amador, Manuel, Kyle Bagwell and Alex Frankel (2018): “A Note on Interval Delegation,” Economic Theory Bulletin, 6(2): 239-249.

  PDF – Journal link – Online appendix – BibTeX and abstract

• Reverse Speculative Attacks

  Amador, Manuel, Javier Bianchi, Luigi Bocola, and Fabrizio Perri (2016): “Reverse Speculative Attacks,” Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 72: 125–137.

  PDF – Journal link – Code – BibTeX and abstract

• Fiscal Policy in Debt Constrained Economies

  Aguiar, Mark, and Manuel Amador (2016): “Fiscal Policy in Debt Constrained Economies,” Journal of Economic Theory, 161: 37-75.

  PDF – Journal link – Code – BibTeX and abstract

• Coordination and Crisis in Monetary Unions

  Aguiar, Mark, Manuel Amador, Emmanuel Farhi and Gita Gopinath (2015): “Coordination and Crisis in Monetary Unions,” The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 130(4): 1727-1779.

  PDF – Journal link – BibTeX and abstract

• Sovereign Debt Booms in Monetary Unions

  Aguiar, Mark, Manuel Amador, Emmanuel Farhi and Gita Gopinath (2014): “Sovereign Debt Booms in Monetary Unions,” American Economic Review: Papers and Proceedings, 104(5).

  PDF – Journal link – Code – BibTeX and abstract

• Sovereign Debt

  Aguiar, Mark and Manuel Amador (2014): ”Sovereign Debt,” Handbook of International Economics, Vol 4, North-Holland: 647-87.

  PDF – Journal link – BibTeX and abstract

• The Theory of Optimal Delegation with An Application to Tariff Caps

  Amador, Manuel, and Kyle Bagwell (2013): “The Theory of Optimal Delegation with an Application to Tariff Caps,” Econometrica, 81(4): 1541-1599.

  PDF – Journal link – Online Appendix – BibTeX and abstract

• Tariff Revenue and Tariff Caps

  Amador, Manuel and Kyle Bagwell (2012): “Tariff Revenue and Tariff Caps,” American Economic Review: Papers and Proceedings, 102(3): 459–465.

  PDF – Journal link – BibTeX and abstract

• Learning from Private and Public Observations of Others’ Actions

  Amador, Manuel, and Pierre-Olivier Weill (2012): “Learning from Private and Public Observations of Others’ Actions,” Journal of Economic Theory, 147(3): 910-940.

  PDF – Journal link – Online Appendix – Older Working Paper – BibTeX and abstract

• Growth in the Shadow of Expropriation

  Aguiar, Mark, and Manuel Amador (2011): “Growth in the Shadow of Expropriation,” The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 126(2): 651-697.

  PDF – Journal link – Online Appendix – Complete version (with appendix) – Code – BibTeX and abstract

• Learning from Prices, Public Communication and Welfare

  Amador, Manuel, and Pierre-Olivier Weill (2010): “Learning from Prices: Public Communication and Welfare,” Journal of Political Economy, 118(5): 866-907.

  PDF – Journal link – Online Appendix – BibTeX and abstract

• Expropriation Dynamics

  Aguiar, Mark, Manuel Amador, and Gita Gopinath (2009): “Expropriation Dynamics,” American Economic Review: Papers and Proceedings, 99(2): 473-479.

  PDF – Journal link – Code – BibTeX and abstract

• Investment Cycles and Sovereign Debt Overhang

  Aguiar, Mark, Manuel Amador, and Gita Gopinath (2009): “Investment Cycles and Sovereign Debt Overhang,” Review of Economic Studies, 76(1): 1-31.

  PDF – Journal link – BibTeX and abstract

• Commitment vs Flexibility

  Amador, Manuel, Ivan Werning, and George‐Marios Angeletos (2006): “Commitment vs. Flexibility,” Econometrica, 74(2): 365-396.

  PDF – Journal link – Online Appendix – NBER Working Paper – BibTeX and abstract